A growing network of African scientists is advancing data-driven approaches to public health decision-making through mathematical modelling initiatives aimed at improving women’s health outcomes and strengthening epidemic preparedness across the continent.

The African Modelling and Analytics Academy for Women (AMAX) is at the centre of this effort, bringing together Francophone and Anglophone research institutions in a coordinated push to expand Africa’s capacity in epidemiological modelling, health analytics, and evidence-based policymaking.

Established under the Gates Foundation’s Global Grand Challenges initiative within the Gender Data Equity programme, AMAX was designed to address persistent gaps in how women’s health is represented in data systems and integrated into public health decision-making frameworks. Researchers say these gaps have historically limited the responsiveness of health policies to conditions that disproportionately affect women.

Beyond gender data gaps, the initiative also responds to growing pressures on African health systems, including infectious disease outbreaks, antimicrobial resistance, and the increasing complexity of epidemic preparedness in resource-constrained settings.

“COVID-19 showed the world that mathematical modelling is not just an academic exercise, it is essential for epidemic preparedness, rapid response, and policy action,” said Prof. Amira Kebir, Principal Investigator of the AMAX project. “AMAX was created to ensure African countries have the expertise and collaborative networks needed to respond to public health challenges while also addressing gender inequities in health data and decision-making.”

Mathematical modelling plays a central role in modern public health planning, enabling policymakers to simulate disease spread, estimate healthcare demand, identify vulnerable populations, and assess the impact of interventions such as vaccination strategies. Within the AMAX framework, these tools are being adapted to African contexts to improve their relevance for national health systems.

The initiative focuses on five priority disease areas with significant impacts on women and vulnerable populations: human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B, COVID-19, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and schistosomiasis. Researchers involved in the programme apply interdisciplinary methods combining epidemiology, statistics, and health economics to generate policy-relevant insights.

According to Dr. Mutono Nyamai, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, the programme reflects a broader shift toward locally grounded scientific capacity.

“Strengthening expertise in data analytics and mathematical modelling within African institutions will enable countries to respond more effectively to outbreaks and health emergencies through timely, evidence-based decision-making, ultimately saving lives,” she said.

A key component of the initiative is the development of a continental training and collaboration ecosystem. Recently, researchers from across Africa convened in Nairobi for the third AMAX Summer School hosted by the University of Nairobi’s Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (CEMA), in collaboration with the Pasteur Institute of Tunis and other partner institutions.

The training brought together participants from research centres across Cameroon, Niger, Senegal, Tunisia, and Uganda, among others, focusing on integrating epidemiological modelling with economic and equity-based decision-making frameworks for health policy.

Over the past three years, AMAX has supported PhD candidates, postdoctoral researchers, and early-career scientists through cross-country placements and collaborative research exchanges spanning North, West, East, and Central Africa. This has enabled researchers to apply modelling techniques to real-world policy challenges in collaboration with ministries of health and public health agencies.

One example includes research conducted in Senegal on schistosomiasis control strategies, which informed recommendations to expand treatment coverage for children under five and align national strategies with updated World Health Organization guidelines. The study contributed to ongoing discussions around improving neglected tropical disease interventions.

In another case, researchers from the Institut Pasteur de Tunis applied mathematical modelling to assess the economic and epidemiological impact of HPV vaccination strategies, helping to inform cost-effective approaches for national health systems. Related work also explored adaptive modelling techniques for epidemic response and resource allocation.

Despite these advances, researchers acknowledge persistent disparities in modelling capacity across the continent. While some institutions have developed strong analytical ecosystems, others continue to face infrastructure and training gaps despite carrying high burdens of disease.

Through lectures, simulations, and policy-focused hackathons, AMAX participants are being trained to address real-time health challenges faced by African governments, including outbreak response, vaccine planning, and healthcare resource optimization.

As the programme expands, its broader goal is to ensure that African countries can generate, interpret, and apply their own health data to inform decisions. Researchers say this will be critical not only for improving women’s health outcomes but also for strengthening overall health system resilience.

Photo courtesy: UNESCO

Article by Jed Mwangi

https://africa.com/african-scientists-advance-data-driven-solutions-for-womens-health/